The Texas Gamble

On Friday, Texas Governor Mike Abbott ended statewide mask and capacity restrictions, saying Texas is open “100%.”

So far, Texas has reported 94,518 deaths from COVID-19, although that number is almost certainly low. Examining excess death statistics, Texas’ excess death total is 28% higher than reported COVID deaths, ranking as one of the most underreported states in the country.

Despite that massive undercounting, Texas has the 3rd most deaths in the country and gaining on NY…

And now it is opening.

You might expect to see deaths continuing to fall rapidly from the winter peak, but you would be wrong. They are quite flat in Texas.

Similarly, positive tests are also high — nearly at the level of last summer’s peak.

Please be careful, Texas friends. In your unmasked, unlimited group of 50, here are the odds at least one person has COVID.

Note: imported from CovidProxima. Click here to see all the interactive elements.