How Deadly is Covid Now?

Even aside from the complete and utter bullshit being pushed by Fox News, the President, etc, there is a lot of confusion about how dangerous covid is. I’m just pulling US totals from the NY Times dataset, so all of this is about averages, but let’s dig in a bit.

First, 1,128,874 people have died. That’s 1 out of 291 (0.34%) people in the United States.

The overall case fatality rate tells you the overall number of deaths divided by the total number of positive tests. It’s currently 11 out of 1,000 (1.1%). However, if we look at the history of that number

We see that big initial spike from New York/New Jersey. That spike continues to pull the average up. If we switch to a sliding window, we get a similar curve

But a more accurate picture of what the odds are if you get covid now. The overall US average now is 104 out of 10,000 (1.04%).

It varies wildly by county and also by state.

But the net is that there are many places in the US that look pretty scary right now.

Note: imported from Covid Proxima. Click here to see all the interactive elements.