COVID-19 and the election

Election day is tomorrow and the US is hitting new highs every day for covid infections. The election is likely to come down to Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. What’s happening there?

While Florida and Georgia had larger summer spikes, infections are moving back up in all four states. Deaths are more mixed, but we’re still early in this surge and we’d expect mortality to keep falling given better treatments.

What about states a bit further out on both sides of the spectrum: Ohio, Texas, Nevada, and Michigan?

Lots of reporting on covid being worse in Republican states. Looking at 2018 House vote as a proxy for that vs weekly infectious people. I’ve been too lazy to build a good scatter graph, but the assertion passes the eyeball test, with most of the rapidly expanding infections in states that voted more Republican in 2018.

Please vote. Be careful.

Note: imported from Covid Proxima. Click here to see all the interactive elements.