Grading 2009 Predictions

With the end of the naughts, it is once again time to grade predictions from last year.

bq. 1) Second Life will return to steady growth and have a shockingly good 2009

I defined “shockingly” as 50% growth and as James Au points out, Second Life saw an almost precisely 50% growth in active users. Dead on and a good start. 1 for 1

bq. 2) Another Republican Senator leaves his party to become an independent, largely caucusing with Senate Democrats.

Awfully nice of Senator Arlen Specter to help me out on this one. I sense a trend. 2 for 2

bq. 3) Microsoft gets its shit together

While MS is getting flack for some recent moves, they did make efforts to slim down, Bing nearly doubled MS search share, and Windows 7 has outsold any previous MS operating system release. The roll continues. 3 for 3

bq. 4) Across the industry, 2009 global recorded music sales contract by low single digit percentages, pulled down by double digit physical sales drops but buoyed by large digital gains.

Alas, I can’t find this stat yet, so will leave this unscored for now. 3 for 3

bq. 5) Linden Lab gets acquired

Oops. Still surprised by this. 3 for 4

bq. 6) Fiber-to-the-home becomes part of the economic stimulus/economic recovery package

ARRA contained nearly $40 billion in broadband stimulus, with FTTH part of the overall mix. Back on track. 4 for 5

bq. 7) New models for innovation, entrepreneurship, and education emerge during the downturn

While Y Combinator continues to spawn successes and we’ve also witnessed an explosion of Hacker Spaces sadly I don’t think either really captures the prediction. Damn. 4 for 6

bq. 8) Israel learns that there must be a balance between legitimate national security concerns and its moral responsibilities to those it governs

While the recently announced moratorium on new settlements is definitely a great step, exceptions seem to abound. Fail. 4 for 7

bq. 9) Something completely new in the web, social space will successfully launch in 2009

I set the bar pretty high for this one, but it’s hard not to point at four square Sure, it’s resurrected Dodge Ball, but the real-world MMO/leveling/achievement elements are new. Back into the win column. 5 for 8

bq. 10) I will travel less in 2009 than I did in 2008

Amazingly, despite spending a ton of time on the road with EMI, my actual mileage went down slightly for 2009. Now to keep that trend going this year! 6 for 9

With one prediction left unscored, my 2009 total is 6 for 9 correct, or 0.667. This compares favorably to previous scores of 0.600, 0.500, 0.500, 0.600 and 0.600 for 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008, with an overall average of 57% for one year predictions, which isn’t too bad.