Predictions For 2008

It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future
- Yogi Berra

Once again, it is time for me to put a stake in the ground, to fearlessly predict what is going to happen over the course of 2008. As the great philosopher-poet Yogi points out, this ain’t easy.

The best way to predict the future is to invent it
- Alan Kay

What makes this harder is that for the first time in this millennium, I’m not actively building the future. I expect that I will again soon, but for now I have many pieces of technology and knowledge to catch up on. So, I’m shooting in the dark more than normal. No more stalling, on to the predictions.

1. The teams I built at Linden Lab will do amazing things this year (duh!)

2. Social search engines — such as Foxmarks, Wikia Search, and others — will generate initial results that are strong enough for Google to release a Google Social Search Beta to great fanfare and limited use

3. The breakthrough feature on the ‘08 iPhone will be video capture, editing, and video blogging more than 3G

4. In Europe, virtual world content will increasingly fall under country of origin rules, greatly simplifying the European Union regulatory requirements

5. Games and virtual worlds will once again be vilified in the name of “family values” during the 2008 Presidential election

6. Despite number 5, games and virtual worlds will be the cornerstone of at least one nation’s effort to reform their education system

7. Despite additional packet tampering and shaping by broadband providers, no effective network neutrality legislation will be passed

8. Between AIR, Gears, GWT, Silverlight, and Weave, some technology will nail a user experience that smoothly supports both Web and offline usage via a browser

9. As the actors join the writers, more AAA content will be developed for machinima, virtual worlds, and the web as a way to give audiences fresh material without crossing picket lines

10. By the end of 2008 I will be building or working on something as challenging and interesting as Second Life

Obviously, that last one is the one that matters the most to me.

So, what do you think will happen in 2008?